The Causal Effect of Bariatric Surgery on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

Cardiovascular disease

The association between weight, and cardiovascular disease and mortality is well established,
 however, the causal effect of weight-loss in midlife on these outcomes is less clear.
 Bariatric surgery results in substantial weight-loss and is an ideal candidate to study the
 causal effects of weight-loss. We propose a project that will use causal inference and
 machine learning methods to answer two important questions:
 
 1. Is bariatric surgery effective for reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality, and if
 so, for who?
 
 2. Which type of bariatric surgery (gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy) is most
 effective, and for who? We will use data from various Swedish registers to identify
 individuals with obesity who are eligible for bariatric surgery. We will then compare
 cardiovascular and mortality outcomes among those undergoing different types of
 bariatric surgery with those receiving non-surgical obesity management using causal
 inference methods. We will use causal forests and expert knowledge to estimate indiviual
 treatment effects, and identify the groups of patients who benefit the most from these
 surgeries.